House of the Dragon: Episode, Jul 12, 2026
Polymarket What will be said during the fourth episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3?
Markets
20 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Council | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Raven | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Power | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| King 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bastard | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Conquest | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kingdom | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Marriage | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mercy | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Prayer | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Storm | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sword | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Wine | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Surrender | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dragon 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Queen 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Revenge | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Widow | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lesson | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Prophecy | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-during-the-fourth-episode-of-house-of-the-dragon-season-3-20260707144111453 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP