House of the Dragon: Episode, Aug 2, 2026
Polymarket What will be said during the seventh episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3?
Markets
21 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queen 10+ times | Yes | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kingdom | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mercy | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Surrender | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Betray | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wine | Yes | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Council | No | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Storm | No | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bastard | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Conquest | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Treason | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Usurper | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prophecy | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Jail | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Soldier | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Death 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grace 20+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| War 8+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Marriage | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Dragon 20+ times | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-during-the-seventh-episode-of-house-of-the-dragon-season-3-20260727205600937 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP