# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-04-30 (settled) · 37 words · P p:who-will-trump-name-in-april · as_of 2026-10-25T18:37:38Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-30 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:who-will-trump-name-in-april (every P row; the listed term = w): Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Gianni / Infantino	gianni|infantino	4	3	0.75	nYYY	1	0	0.58	hist	0	0	yes	1
Kushner	kushner	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	49	24	0.49	YYnnnnYnnn	1	1	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Hillary	hillary	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Kamala	kamala	25	11	0.44	YYnnnYnnnY	1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Ilhan / Omar	ilhan|omar	0	0			1	1	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Netanyahu	netanyahu	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Oz	oz	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	55	23	0.42	YnYYYnYYYn	1	1	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bernie	bernie	0	0			1	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Friedrich / Merz	friedrich|merz	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Zuckerberg	zuckerberg	0	0			1	1	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Keir / Starmer	keir|starmer	9	2	0.22	nnYnYnnnn	1	1	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Viktor / Orbán	orban|viktor	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bolsonaro	bolsonaro	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Castro	castro	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Leavitt	leavitt	0	0			1	1	0.48	hist	0	0	no	1
Leo XIV / Pope	leo xiv|pope	0	0			1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Caine	caine	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Kavanaugh	kavanaugh	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Nicki / Minaj	minaj|nicki	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Warsh	warsh	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Delcy	delcy	0	0			1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Jensen / Huang	huang|jensen	0	0			1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bush	bush	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.46	hist	0	0	yes	1
Machado	machado	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.45	hist	0	0	no	1
Homan	homan	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Newsom / Newscum	newscum|newsom	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.44	hist	0	0	yes	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	18	6	0.33	YYYYYnnnnn	1	0	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Massie	massie	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.4	hist	0	0	no	1
Warren / Pocahontas	pocahonta|warren	0	0			1	1	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Schumer	schumer	23	5	0.22	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	yes	1
Khamenei / Khomeini	khamenei|khomeini	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.26	hist	0	0	yes	1
Emmanuel / Macron	emmanuel|macron	0	0			1	1	0.51	prior	0	0	yes	1
Paxton	paxton	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Rand Paul	rand paul	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Talarico	talarico	0	0			1	0	0.51	prior	0	0	no	1