Will Donald Trump say “Nobel / Prize”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel / Prize” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nobel / Prize
- Probability
- 37% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…settled I've settled eight wars. Think of that. Did I get the Nobel Prize? No. DID I GET THE NOBEL PRIZE? EXCUSE ME. BYRON, did…
…than any other president ever. Ever. And they've never given you the Nobel Peace Prize, by the way, which is a disgrace. So, what I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Kosovo. I settled all these wars and they gave the wonderful peace prize, right? Does anybody know the name of that peace prize? The peace…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Nobel / Prize |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Nobel / Prize | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Nobel / Prize | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Nobel / Prize | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Nobel / Prize | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nobel / Prize”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nobel / Prize” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 10, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nobel / Prize” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nobel / Prize’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nobel-or-prize (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nobel%20%2F%20prize · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP