Will Donald Trump say “War” 5+ times?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “War” 5+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 14, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 19, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
War 5+ times
- Probability
- 52% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
even have a Christmas were remember when I started the war on preserving Christmas when I was two 2016. We will proudly say Christmas again.…
…Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting trial. And we won the war in Venezuela in one day. And now we're working with them. We're…
…know, it's been through the mill. Looks like it went through the war. Actually, it did actually. So, I took the doors. I'm a big…
…of Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro, who is now awaiting. And we won the war in Venezuela. One of the I mean if you got to take…
…from American families and American businesses. I want to thank Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Todd Blanche -- these are great people, by…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | War 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
| May 14, 2025 | War 5+ times | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “War 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “War” 5+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 14, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 19, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “War 5+ times” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘War 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/war-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=war%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP