# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-10-13 · 22 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-gaza-summit-in-egypt · as_of 2026-10-24T00:37:15Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-10-13 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-gaza-summit-in-egypt (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	36	25	0.69	YYYnYYYnYY	0.61	hist	yes
Bibi	bibi	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.55	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	19	12	0.63	nnnYYYYnYY	0.54	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	23	13	0.57	nYYYnYYYYn	0.51	hist	yes
Peace in the Middle East	peace in the middle east	1	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times	billion|million|trillion#10	10	14	8	0.57	YnnYYnnYYY	0.48	hist	no
Russia / Ukraine	russia|ukraine	1	6	3	0.5	nYnnYY	0.46	hist	no
Nobel / Peace prize	nobel|peace prize	1	0	0			0.46	hist	no
Crown	crown	1	1	1	1	Y	0.44	hist	yes
Steve / Jared	jared|steve	1	0	0			0.42	hist	yes
Erdogan	erdogan	1	1	0	0	n	0.41	hist	yes
Peace 5+ times	peace#5	5	1	0	0	n	0.41	hist	yes
Smart / High IQ	high iq|smart	1	0	0			0.39	hist	yes
Peace through Strength	peace through strength	1	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.38	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	17	4	0.24	nnnYYnnnYn	0.36	hist	no
8 Wars	8 war	1	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Hostage 5+ times	hostage#5	5	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Jew / Muslim 5+ times	jew|muslim#5	5	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Phase Two	phase two	1	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Reconstruction	reconstruction	1	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Riviera / Resort	resort|riviera	1	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Wealthy	wealthy	1	0	0			0.42	prior	yes