Will “ICE” be said 5+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 5, 2025 (25%), most recently on Feb 5, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
ICE 5+ times
- Probability
- 37% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…convicted of the most heinous and violent crimes. This past weekend alone, ICE arrested a Mexican national and gang member convicted of second degree murder…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | ICE 5+ times |  Polymarket | No | 2 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ICE 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 1 |
| Feb 12, 2025 | ICE 5+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ICE 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “ICE 5+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 5, 2025 (25%), most recently on Feb 5, 2025.
- What is the probability “ICE 5+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘ICE 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/ice-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=ice%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP