# JD Vance (jd-vance) · debate 2024-10-01 · 24 words · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-the-vp-debate · as_of 2026-10-27T17:23:34Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-10-01 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-during-the-vp-debate (every P row; the listed term = w): This is a market on predicting the statements made by JD Vance during the upcoming debate.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Border 5+ times	border#5	5	1	1	1	Y	0.42	hist	yes
China 3+ times	china#3	3	1	1	1	Y	0.42	hist	yes
Fentanyl	fentanyl	1	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist	yes
Mamaw	mamaw	1	2	0	0	nn	0.22	hist	no
Stolen valor	stolen valor	1	2	0	0	nn	0.22	hist	no
Tampon	tampon	1	2	0	0	nn	0.22	hist	no
Abortion	abortion	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Cat	cat	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Fire/Fired	fire|fired	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Haitian	haitian	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Helene	helene	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Hillbilly	hillbilly	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Illegal alien	illegal alien	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Iran	iran	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Israel	israel	1	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
IVF	ivf	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Kamala Harris 15+ times	kamala harris#15	15	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Kamala Harris 30+ times	kamala harris#30	30	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Rig/Rigged	rig|rigged	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Trans	tran	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Trump 20+ times	trump#20	20	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Trump 30+ times	trump#30	30	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Usha	usha	1	0	0			0.3	prior	no