# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2025-11-15 · 20 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25NOV15 · as_of 2026-10-25T06:42:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-15 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25NOV15 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Hannity on November 14th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	8	7	0.88	YYYnYYYY	1	1	0.68	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	3	3	1	YYY	1	1	0.63	hist	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.55	hist	yes
Schumer	schumer	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Investment	investment	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.48	hist	yes
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.43	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	4	1	0.25	nnnY	1	1	0.4	hist	no
China	china	5	2	0.4	YYnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	6	2	0.33	YnnnYn	1	0	0.34	hist	yes
Fentanyl	fentanyl	4	1	0.25	nYnn	1	0	0.32	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.32	hist	no
MAHA / Make America Healthy Again	maha|make america healthy again	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.32	hist	no
SNAP / Food Stamp	food stamp|snap	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.32	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.3	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.3	hist	no
Tax	tax	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.29	hist	no
California	california	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	yes
Climate Change	climate change	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Green	green	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Solar	solar	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no