# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-03-12 · 21 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAR12 · as_of 2026-10-24T17:42:39Z
# scope K anyone · n/y settled before 2026-03-12 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAR12 ({word} = w of K rows): If || Person || says {word} as part of || Address ||, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Reward	reward	13	13	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.7	hist	yes
Advantage	advantage	2	2	1	YY	0.56	hist	yes
Strategy / Strategize / Strategic	strategic|strategize|strategy	2	2	1	YY	0.56	hist	yes
Flint	flint	9	6	0.67	YYYYnnnYY	0.51	hist	yes
Water	water	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.51	hist	no
Key	key	12	4	0.33	YnnnnnnYYY	0.48	hist	yes
Fire	fire	13	7	0.54	YYYnnnnYYn	0.4	hist	yes
Puzzle	puzzle	13	5	0.38	nYnnYnnYYn	0.39	hist	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	13	6	0.46	nYnYYYnYnn	0.36	hist	no
Medic / Medical	medic|medical	5	2	0.4	YnnYn	0.35	hist	no
Fish / Fishing	fish|fishing	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.32	hist	no
Fiji	fiji	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.29	hist	no
Alliance	alliance	15	3	0.2	nnnnnnYnnY	0.23	hist	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	9	1	0.11	nnnnnnYnn	0.23	hist	no
Billie Eilish	billie eilish	2	0	0	nn	0.22	hist	no
MrBeast / Beast	beast|mrbeast	2	0	0	nn	0.22	hist	no
Trust	trust	14	3	0.21	nnnnnYnnnn	0.21	hist	no
Hunger / Hungry	hunger|hungry	13	1	0.08	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.16	hist	no
Sit Out	sit out	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Torch	torch	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Tribe has Spoken	tribe has spoken	0	0			0.33	prior	yes