# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-04-15 · 18 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR15 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-04-15 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 8 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Fire	fire	18	11	0.61	nnYYnYnYYY	0.59	hist	yes
Safe / Safety	safe|safety	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.57	hist	yes
Tie / Tied	tie|tied	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.57	hist	no
Key	key	17	8	0.47	nnYYYYYYnY	0.57	hist	no
Rope	rope	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.47	hist	no
Puzzle	puzzle	18	8	0.44	nnYYnYYnnY	0.47	hist	yes
Alliance	alliance	24	7	0.29	nYYnnYYnnY	0.45	hist	no
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	18	8	0.44	YnYnnnYnnY	0.41	hist	no
Water	water	8	4	0.5	nYYnYYnn	0.4	hist	no
Sit Out	sit out	5	2	0.4	nYYnn	0.36	hist	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	14	2	0.14	nnYnnnnnYn	0.29	hist	no
Dig Deep	dig deep	2	0	0	nn	0.26	hist	no
Heat	heat	2	0	0	nn	0.26	hist	no
Medic / Medical	medic|medical	10	2	0.2	YnnYnnnnnn	0.22	hist	no
MrBeast / Beast	beast|mrbeast	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.19	hist	no
Trust	trust	19	3	0.16	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.18	hist	no
Hunger / Hungry	hunger|hungry	18	1	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Fallon	fallon	0	0			0.39	prior	no