# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2025-10-30 · 18 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25OCT30 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:26:45Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-10-30 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25OCT30 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 49 Episode 6, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Flint	flint	3	3	1	YYY	0.57	hist	yes
Reward	reward	3	3	1	YYY	0.57	hist	yes
Fire	fire	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.41	hist	yes
Trust	trust	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.36	hist	no
Alliance	alliance	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.28	hist	no
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.27	hist	no
Puzzle	puzzle	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.27	hist	no
Risk	risk	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.25	hist	no
Blindside / Blind Side	blind side|blindside	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.23	hist	no
Tired	tired	1	0	0	n	0.22	hist	no
Key	key	2	0	0	nn	0.18	hist	yes
Hungry / Hunger	hunger|hungry	3	0	0	nnn	0.16	hist	yes
Target	target	4	0	0	nnnn	0.15	hist	yes
Weak	weak	4	0	0	nnnn	0.15	hist	no
Egg	egg	0	0			0.28	prior	no
Fish / Fishing	fish|fishing	0	0			0.28	prior	no
Medic / Medical	medic|medical	0	0			0.28	prior	yes
Strength / Strong	strength|strong	0	0			0.28	prior	yes