# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2025-12-04 · 16 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25DEC04 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:58:31Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-12-04 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25DEC04 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 49 Episode 11, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Reward	reward	8	8	1	YYYYYYYY	0.68	yes
Strength / Strong	strength|strong	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	0.48	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	8	4	0.5	YnnnYnYY	0.48	yes
Tie / Ties / Tied	tie|tied	1	1	1	Y	0.46	no
Blindside / Blind Side	blind side|blindside	8	3	0.38	YnnnnnYY	0.41	yes
Fire	fire	8	5	0.62	YYnYYYnn	0.4	no
Puzzle	puzzle	8	3	0.38	YnnnYnnY	0.37	no
Medic / Medical	medic|medical	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.35	no
Target	target	9	2	0.22	nnnnYnnnY	0.33	no
Risk	risk	9	2	0.22	nYnnnnnnY	0.3	no
Key	key	7	1	0.14	nnYnnnn	0.2	no
Trust	trust	9	2	0.22	YnYnnnnnn	0.19	yes
Hungry / Hunger	hunger|hungry	8	1	0.12	nnnYnnnn	0.19	no
Alliance	alliance	9	1	0.11	nnYnnnnnn	0.17	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	4	0	0	nnnn	0.16	no
Pressure	pressure	4	0	0	nnnn	0.16	no