Marco Rubio: Episode, Aug 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Marco Rubio say during The Katie Miller Podcast?
Markets
16 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 72%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 72%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 68%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Maduro | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 77%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 67%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 24%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXRUBIOMENTION-26AUG11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP