Will Marco Rubio say “Venezuela / Maduro”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Venezuela / Maduro” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 14, 2026 (75%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
Venezuela / Maduro
- Probability
- 59% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…what's happening with Cuba, OK? Cuba used to get free oil from Venezuela, used to give them a bunch of free oil. They would take…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Venezuela / Maduro |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Venezuela / Maduro |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Venezuela / Maduro | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 14, 2026 | Venezuela / Maduro | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “Venezuela / Maduro”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Venezuela / Maduro” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 14, 2026 (75%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “Venezuela / Maduro” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘Venezuela / Maduro’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/maduro-or-venezuela (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=maduro%20%2F%20venezuela · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP