# Marco Rubio (marco-rubio) · podcast_episode 2026-08-11 · 16 words · K k:KXRUBIOMENTION-26AUG11 · as_of 2026-10-24T17:50:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-11 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-05-05 (under 2 podcast episode transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXRUBIOMENTION-26AUG11 ({word} = w of K rows): If Marco Rubio says {word} as part of The Katie Miller Podcast , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	7	7	1	YYYYYYY	1	1	0.77	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	yes
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	1	6	5	0.83	YYnYYY	1	1	0.68	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	7	6	0.86	YYYYYYn	1	1	0.67	hist	no
Election	election	1	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.65	hist	yes
Venezuela / Maduro	maduro|venezuela	1	2	1	0.5	nY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	8	4	0.5	nYnnYYYn	1	1	0.51	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	8	4	0.5	nYnnYYYn	1	1	0.51	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	6	3	0.5	nnYYYn	1	1	0.51	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	1	0.48	hist	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	5	1	0.2	nnnYn	1	0	0.39	hist	yes
JD / Vance	jd|vance	1	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.35	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	1	0	0.24	hist	no
Afford / Affordability / Affordable	afford|affordability|affordable	1	0	0			1	0	0.54	prior	no
American Dream	american dream	1	0	0			1	0	0.54	prior	no