Will Marco Rubio say “JD / Vance”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio said “JD / Vance” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (20%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
JD / Vance
- Probability
- 45% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | JD / Vance |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JD / Vance |  Polymarket | No |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | No |
| May 13, 2026 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 31, 2026 | JD / Vance | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “JD / Vance”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio said “JD / Vance” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (20%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “JD / Vance” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘JD / Vance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/jd-or-vance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=jd%20%2F%20vance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP