Mark Rutte: Press conference, Apr 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Rutte say during his press conference?
Polymarket What will NATO Secretary General say during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia?
Markets
32 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drone | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ally / Allied / Alliance | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Spending | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defense 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alliance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Europe | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GDP | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hungary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| International Law | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mercenary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too late | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artificial intelligence / AI | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26APR16B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP