Will Mark Rutte say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Iran / Iranian” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 16, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Rutte
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 65% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 67 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Mark Rutte say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Iran / Iranian” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 16, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Rutte says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Rutte: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-rutte/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-rutte&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-rutte&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP