Will Mark Rutte say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Israel / Israeli” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (20%), most recently on Apr 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Rutte
Israel / Israeli
- Probability
- 40% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Israel / Israeli |  Kalshi | No |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No |
| May 22, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Mark Rutte say “Israel / Israeli”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Israel / Israeli” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (20%), most recently on Apr 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Rutte says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Rutte: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-rutte/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-rutte&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-rutte&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP