Will Mark Rutte say “Nuclear”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Nuclear” at 7 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 24, 2025 (88%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 74% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 7/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Rutte
Nuclear
- Probability
- 74% · n=8
- Settled
- 7/8 (88%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 14 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Nuclear |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Nuclear |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 24, 2025 | nuclear | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Mark Rutte say “Nuclear”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Nuclear” at 7 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 24, 2025 (88%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Rutte says “Nuclear” next time?
- 74%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Rutte: ‘Nuclear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-rutte/words/nuclear (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-rutte&word=nuclear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-rutte&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP