Will Mark Rutte say “Ceasefire”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Ceasefire” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (25%), most recently on Apr 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Rutte
Ceasefire
- Probability
- 42% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Mark Rutte say “Ceasefire”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Ceasefire” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (25%), most recently on Apr 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Rutte says “Ceasefire” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Rutte: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-rutte/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-rutte&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-rutte&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP