Will “Newsom” be said 2+ times at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Newsom” was said 2+ times at the Political debates on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 28, 2026.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- any candidate
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Newsom (2+ times)
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | Newsom (2+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Newsom (2+ times)” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Newsom” was said 2+ times at the Political debates on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “Newsom (2+ times)” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Newsom (2+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/newsom-2plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=newsom%20%282%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP