# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-04-28 · 21 words · K k:KXNYCMDEBMENTION-26APR28 · as_of 2026-10-24T17:42:39Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-04-28 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNYCMDEBMENTION-26APR28 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of California Governor Debate , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Homeless / Homelessness	homeless|homelessness	1	0	0			0.7	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	0	0			0.58	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	5	3	0.6	YYYnn	0.54	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.54	hist	yes
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.54	hist	yes
Mental Health	mental health	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.5	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	12	5	0.42	YnnYYnnYYn	0.49	hist	no
Climate	climate	1	1	0	0	n	0.48	hist	yes
Billionaire (3+ times)	billionaire#3	3	1	0	0	n	0.46	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	1	0	0	n	0.43	hist	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	1	0	0			0.56	prior	no
Border	border	1	0	0			0.56	prior	no
Data Center	data center	1	0	0			0.56	prior	no
Fire / Wildfire	fire|wildfire	1	0	0			0.56	prior	yes
Newsom (2+ times)	newsom#2	2	0	0			0.56	prior	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	0	0			0.56	prior	no
Orange County	orange county	1	0	0			0.56	prior	no
Swalwell	swalwell	1	0	0			0.56	prior	no
Trump (8+ times)	trump#8	8	0	0			0.56	prior	yes