# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-06-16 · 16 words · K k:KXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-26JUN16 · as_of 2026-10-25T23:07:15Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-06-16 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-26JUN16 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of Democratic Primary Debate for the 13th Congressional District , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	0	0			0.73	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	2	2	1	YY	0.68	hist	yes
Socialism / Socialist	socialism|socialist	1	2	2	1	YY	0.68	hist	no
Biden / Obama	biden|obama	1	0	0			0.68	hist	yes
Subway / MTA	mta|subway	1	0	0			0.68	hist	yes
Homeless / Homelessness	homeless|homelessness	1	1	1	1	Y	0.66	hist	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	1	1	1	Y	0.66	hist	yes
Mental Health	mental health	1	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.65	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	6	4	0.67	nYnYYY	0.65	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	2	2	1	YY	0.64	hist	yes
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	1	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.62	hist	yes
Palestine / Palestinian	palestine|palestinian	1	0	0			0.51	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	4	2	0.5	YYnn	0.5	hist	yes
Trans / Transgender	tran|transgender	1	0	0			0.43	hist	no
Deport / Deported / Deportation	deport|deportation|deported	1	0	0			0.57	prior	yes
Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement	endorse|endorsed|endorsement	1	0	0			0.57	prior	no