# Gavin Newsom (gavin-newsom) · keynote 2026-05-19 · 15 words · K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26MAY19 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:19:02Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-19 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26MAY19 ({word} = w of K rows): If Gavin Newsom says {word} as part of 2026 CAP IDEAS Conference , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Safe / Safer / Safety	safe|safer|safety	1	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.6	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.55	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	0.54	hist	no
Republican	republican	1	12	6	0.5	YYYnYnnnYY	0.52	hist	no
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.52	hist	yes
Election	election	1	6	3	0.5	nYnYnY	0.5	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.49	hist	no
Democracy	democracy	1	18	8	0.44	YnYnYnnnnn	0.44	hist	yes
Climate	climate	1	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.39	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	9	2	0.22	nnnYnnnnY	0.39	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	7	2	0.29	nnnYnnY	0.38	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	16	4	0.25	nYnYnYnnnY	0.35	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	10	2	0.2	nnnnnnYnYn	0.33	hist	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	1	0	0			0.48	prior	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	0	0			0.48	prior	yes