Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Jul 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his announcement?
Markets
15 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 56%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Junk / Fee | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Subscription | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 42%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Five Borough | No | 73%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | 44%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | No | 39%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rent / Landlord | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | No | 31%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 29%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 26%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | No | 23%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 10%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 6%n=54 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26JUL13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP