Will “Lie / Lying” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Lie / Lying” was said on The Last Word in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 19, 2026.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Lie / Lying
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lie / Lying |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Lie / Lying” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Lie / Lying” was said on The Last Word in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 19, 2026.
- What is the probability “Lie / Lying” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Lie / Lying’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/lie-or-lying (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=lie%20%2F%20lying · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP