Tom Homan: Episode, Feb 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation?
Markets
14 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | 72%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Noem / Bovino | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Walz / Frey | No | 72%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Violent / Violence | No | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cooperate / Cooperation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deport / Deportation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Body Cam / Body Camera | No | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Peace / Peaceful / Peacefully | No | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gun / Armed | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Obstruct / Obstructing / Obstruction | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOMANMENTION-26FEB16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP