Tom Homan: Remarks, Apr 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Tom Homan say during the Turning Point Tour?
Markets
13 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | 73%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Pending resolution | – | – |
| TSA | Pending resolution | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOMANMENTION-26APR22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP