# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · speech 2026-05-29 · 16 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAY29 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:26:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-29 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAY29 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	11	10	0.91	nYYYYYYYYY	0.64	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	4	3	0.75	nYYY	0.59	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	2	2	1	YY	0.58	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	2	2	1	YY	0.58	hist	yes
Lethal	lethal	1	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.55	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	14	10	0.71	YYYYYYnYYn	0.55	hist	no
Venezuela	venezuela	1	1	1	1	Y	0.51	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	10	6	0.6	YnYnYnYYYn	0.49	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	0	0			0.44	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	12	6	0.5	nYYYYnnnYn	0.42	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.38	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	12	4	0.33	YnnnYnnYnn	0.33	hist	no
Russia / Russian	russia|russian	1	0	0			0.33	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	2	0	0	nn	0.3	hist	yes
National Security	national security	1	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Taiwan	taiwan	1	0	0			0.42	prior	yes