Will “Common Sense” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Common Sense” was said at the Political debates on 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 17, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- any candidate
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Common Sense
- Probability
- 51% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | Common Sense |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Common Sense | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Common Sense | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Common Sense |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Common Sense” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Common Sense” was said at the Political debates on 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 17, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 3, 2026.
- What is the probability “Common Sense” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Common Sense’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/common-sense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=common%20sense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP