ABC World News Tonight, October 15, 2026
On the Oct 15, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 7 of the 16 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 35%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 72%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Strait Of Hormuz | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Flood / Flooding | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 55%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Zacharia | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pope Leo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| NTSB | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Starlink | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Medicare | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Great Wolf Lodge | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
5 matches for “Election”; 3 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
Tonight, the suspicious letters sent to members of Congress and to state election offices just before the midterms. Pierre Thomas standing by on what we've…
…Pierre, there's also concerning news tonight about suspicious mail being sent to congressional offices and to state elections officers just weeks before the midterm election.
before Election Day. Yes, still very concerning, Pierre Thomas. I know you'll continue to follow this with the team. Thank you. We move on tonight…
Where the listed words were said
Iran attacking at least 20 vessels in recent weeks. Tonight, ABC's Matt Rivers aboard the USS Washington. Tonight we're aboard the USS George Washington near…
…star quarterback Jalen Hurts suddenly sidelined. Also tonight, the officer fired after allegedly giving flock camera surveillance to her husband, who is an ICE agent.
…about the children right now. Also breaking tonight amid the outrage, President Trump has now halted the plan to live stream the execution of the…
One of at least 20 vessels attacked in the Strait of Hormuz this month alone. This strike group monitoring Iranian threats 24-7. They certainly have…
Tornadoes and flooding. Temperatures in the northeast set to plunge. Lee Goldberg is here. Tonight, an arrest in a murder case that made national headlines.…
…group plays a vital role here, enforcing the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil coming out of the strait and helping escort non-Iranian oil tankers out,…
…Today, Zachariah dismissing questions about her resume as, quote, miscommunication. And David Zacharias says she consulted many legal experts about whether it was okay to…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-10-15:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-10-15:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP