What is the probability “Hurricane / Polo” is said on World News Tonight next time?

47%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Hurricane / Polo” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Hurricane / Polo” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, “Hurricane / Polo” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 29, 2026 (67%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 14, 2026 – Oct 26, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 27, 2026) is not counted.

47%from settlement history only · n=3counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 20:34 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Hurricane / Polo

Probability: 47% · n=3
Settled: 2/3 (67%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 23, 2026 · Oct 23, 2026 · 3:51In transcript

HURRICANE.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 21, 2026 · Oct 21, 2026 · 18:48In transcript

…been a long, challenging road to get here. Just two years ago, Hurricane Milton devastated Tampa Bay. The roof of Tropicana Field Baseball Stadium was…