The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Sep 30, 2026
On the Sep 30, 2026 episode of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, 6 of the 13 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
13 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 39 | ✓ | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 2 | 8 | ✓ | 33%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 1 | 48 | ✓ | 68%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 1 | 12 | ✓ | 66%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 1 | 7 | ✓ | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption / Crook | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 44%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
0 matches for “Indict / Indicted / Indictment”.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-last-word:2026-09-30:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-last-word:2026-09-30:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP