Face the Nation (CBS), January 18, 2026
On the Jan 18, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 8 of the 20 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
20 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20
Kalshibacktest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 2 | 7 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walz / Governor | Yes | 2 | 10 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protest / Protester | Yes | 1 | 12 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 1 | 18 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Discriminate / Discriminating / Discrimination | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investigate / Investigation | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Self Defense | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Impeach / Impeachment | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Self Defense / Defending | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Daycare / Day Care | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Invade / Invading / Invasion | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 11 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
8 matches for “Iran”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…the mayor of Minneapolis, Jacob Frey. Then: With the volatile situation in Iran defused for the moment, President Trump turns to his next international target,…
…president very active abroad if this first year of his presidency, from Iran potentially to Greenland. Americans seem to say, Trump's policies are going to…
…less peace and stability in the world, those things underpin those views. Iran, a little bit different here. Still majority opposition to the idea of…
Well, the president is moving on the Iran front, is moving an aircraft carrier from the Pacific to CENTCOM, to that Mideast region, where there…
…Witkoff. Do you know the focus of those meetings? Thes the United States working with Israel on a plan for what happens next in Iran?
Where the listed words were said
…in this situation – we wouldn't be in this situation if Joe Biden hadn't allowed our open-border policies to be in place and allowed up…
…think they realized until just recently is how the liberals and the Democrats and the media would attack them and try to ruin their lives…
…of Justice or the federal government could be coming after senators and governors and mayors simply for speaking for their respective constituencies and disagreeing with…
…one park or one section of the city. You are allowed to protest, so long as you're doing it peacefully. And, by the way, we've…
What this is about is coming into our city by the thousands and terrorizing people simply because they're Latino or Somali.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/face-the-nation:2026-01-18:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=face-the-nation:2026-01-18:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP