Will “Illegal Alien” be said on Face the Nation next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Illegal Alien” was said on Face the Nation in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Face the Nation
Illegal Alien
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…election is corrupted, you know, that he's going to say that there's illegal aliens voting in Michigan and Florida. My little piece of this is…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2026 | Illegal Alien |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Illegal Alien” said on Face the Nation?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Illegal Alien” was said on Face the Nation in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “Illegal Alien” is said on Face the Nation next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP