Face the Nation (CBS), January 18, 2026
On the Jan 18, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 8 of the 20 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
20 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20
Kalshibacktest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 2 | 7 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walz / Governor | Yes | 2 | 10 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protest / Protester | Yes | 1 | 12 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 1 | 18 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Discriminate / Discriminating / Discrimination | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investigate / Investigation | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Self Defense | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Impeach / Impeachment | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Self Defense / Defending | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Daycare / Day Care | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Invade / Invading / Invasion | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 11 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
4 matches for “Biden”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…in this situation – we wouldn't be in this situation if Joe Biden hadn't allowed our open-border policies to be in place and allowed up…
…suspected terrorists, criminals, come from countries in the mass migration that the Biden administration facilitated, I can't tell the people of Minnesota exactly how many…
…we always have under ICE and under the Department of Homeland Security and within the administration, the exact same policy that the Biden administration used…
…that I would also point out, and let me be clear, the Biden administration screwed up in 2024 when the Venezuelan people voted overwhelmingly to…
Where the listed words were said
…think they realized until just recently is how the liberals and the Democrats and the media would attack them and try to ruin their lives…
…of Justice or the federal government could be coming after senators and governors and mayors simply for speaking for their respective constituencies and disagreeing with…
…one park or one section of the city. You are allowed to protest, so long as you're doing it peacefully. And, by the way, we've…
What this is about is coming into our city by the thousands and terrorizing people simply because they're Latino or Somali.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/face-the-nation:2026-01-18:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=face-the-nation:2026-01-18:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP