NASA: Press conference, Mar 31, 2026
Kalshi What will NASA say during the Artemis II Pre-Launch Press Conference?
Markets
15 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Yes | 91%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Preparation / Prepared | Yes | 91%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Artemis III | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Moon Base / Lunar Base | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Florida | Yes | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Weather | Yes | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mars | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Quarantine | No | 91%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Apollo | No | 85%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SpaceX | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Troubleshoot / Troubleshooting | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Centaur | No | 15%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 8%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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