NASA: Press conference, Apr 5, 2026
Kalshi What will NASA say during the Artemis II News Conference?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Yes | 93%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Exercise | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apollo | Yes | 73%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gravity | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Easter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Toilet 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radiation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oxygen | Yes | 14%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Damage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weather | No | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Troubleshoot / Troubleshooting | No | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Humidity | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SpaceX | No | 20%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Food | No | 14%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Microsoft | No | 14%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 6%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26APR05B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP