NASA: Press conference, Apr 7, 2026
Kalshi What will NASA say during the Artemis II news conference?
Markets
16 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Yes | 93%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Apollo | Yes | 79%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Toilet 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gravity | Yes | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crater | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weather | Yes | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Exercise | No | 84%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radiation | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Damage | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oxygen | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Troubleshoot / Troubleshooting | No | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | No | 17%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Food | No | 11%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 6%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26APR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP