NASA: Press conference, Apr 16, 2026
Kalshi What will the Artemis II Astronauts say during their press conference?
Markets
16 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Yes | 93%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Moon Base | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Toilet | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Splashdown | No | 87%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Weather | No | 54%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| San Diego | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mars | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crater | No | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gravity | No | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Carroll | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eclipse | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oxygen | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | No | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | No | 13%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 8%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Food | No | 6%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26APR16C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP