NASA: Press conference, Aug 14, 2026
Kalshi What will NASA say during their press conference?
Polymarket What will be said during the NASA news conference?
Markets
21 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apollo | Yes | 86%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Moon Base | Yes | 73%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Florida | Yes | 67%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artemis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ISS / International Space Station | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space Force | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Astronaut | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space Shuttle | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mars | Yes | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | 26%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 16%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cosmonaut | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drones | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radiation | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 24%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26AUG14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP