NASA: Press conference, Apr 9, 2026
Kalshi What will NASA say during the Artemis II press conference?
Markets
19 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Yes | 93%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Apollo | Yes | 85%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| San Diego | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Splashdown | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weather | Yes | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oxygen | Yes | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Toilet | No | 84%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gravity | No | 78%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Radiation | No | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Damage | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crater | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Eclipse | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Exercise / Exercising | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Troubleshoot / Troubleshooting | No | 20%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 14%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | No | 12%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Food | No | 8%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 6%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26APR09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP