NASA: Press conference, Apr 10, 2026
Kalshi What will NASA say during the Post-splashdown news conference?
Markets
19 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Yes | 93%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Apollo | Yes | 87%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Splashdown | Yes | 83%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crater | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Eclipse | Yes | 13%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | 11%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| San Diego | No | 83%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Weather | No | 68%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Gravity | No | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Toilet | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oxygen | No | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Radiation | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Damage | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| President / Prime Minister | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Troubleshoot / Troubleshooting | No | 16%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Exercise / Exercising | No | 13%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 10%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Food | No | 7%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 5%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26APR10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP