NASA: Press conference, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will the NASA reps say during the press conference on Artemis II moon launch delay?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Preparation / Prepared | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Quarantine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Safe / Safety | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grace | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Florida | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Troubleshoot / Troubleshooting | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weather | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dragon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epsilon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26FEB04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP