Will NASA say “Quarantine”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, NASA said “Quarantine” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 31, 2026 (71%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
50%from settlement history only · n=7counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 5/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
NASA
Quarantine
- Probability
- 50% · n=7
- Settled
- 5/7 (71%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for NASA yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Quarantine |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Quarantine | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Quarantine | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Quarantine | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Quarantine | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Quarantine | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Quarantine | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does NASA say “Quarantine”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, NASA said “Quarantine” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 31, 2026 (71%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026.
- What is the probability NASA says “Quarantine” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “NASA: ‘Quarantine’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/nasa/words/quarantine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nasa&word=quarantine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nasa&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP