Will Donald Trump say “Fool”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fool” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 21, 2025 (20%), most recently on Mar 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fool
- Probability
- 28% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…were laughed at. We were mocked. We were like a bunch of fools. We're the most respected country anywhere in the world by far, and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Fool |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Fool | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Fool | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Fool | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Fool | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fool”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fool” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 21, 2025 (20%), most recently on Mar 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fool” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fool’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fool (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fool · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP