What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Jew / Jewish” next time?

20%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Jew / Jewish”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Jew / Jewish” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Jew / Jewish” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 4, 2025 (17%), most recently on Nov 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

20%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 5 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 10:00 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Jew / Jewish

Probability: 20% · n=6
Settled: 1/6 (17%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

I meet with Jewish leaders, some of whom agree with me, some of whom have criticisms, and frankly, the meeting is never contingent upon agreement.…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…traitor. Your statement issued yesterday morning seemed to anger many in the Jewish community. What do you make of that conflict that seems to be…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.