Will Todd Blanche say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Todd Blanche did not say “Iran / Iranian” at any of the 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 8 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Todd Blanche
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 20% · n=8
- Settled
- 0/8 (0%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
I'd like to ask you about the Iran war and about Anthony Fauci. On the Iran war, Congressman Thomas Massie today introduced articles of impeachment…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
| May 19, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Todd Blanche say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Todd Blanche did not say “Iran / Iranian” at any of the 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Todd Blanche says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 20%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Todd Blanche: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/todd-blanche/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=todd-blanche&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=todd-blanche&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP